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Primary Updates – Democratic Superdelegates and Where Conservatives Go From Here

The Republican race is over. Huckabee should step aside as no point remains in staying in the race — even Ron Paul quit over the weekend. It’s a done deal (and has been for a while). But if you didn’t catch Romney’s speech where he dropped out, you should read the transcript. The only question is — where was this guy all along? (Laura Ingraham reported he wrote the speech himself, so perhaps it was poor advice/speech writing during the campaign) Perhaps Romney had bad advisers, but the flip-flops and nasty attacks turned away a lot of voters.

Additionally, Romney had (has) a tough time convincing people he really is a true conservative — count us in the skeptical group. He was liberal as a governor, and just seemed to flip when he needed to. But is he a conservative governing in a liberal state, or a liberal running as a conservative? Nobody knows for sure.

But now, he’s got a few years to work on his convictions. If he wants to be taken seriously next time, he’s got to work on his conservative credentials. Stay involved in the RNC and some conservative groups (joining up with Newt wouldn’t hurt either) and work as a conservative. If Romney thinks he can vacation for the next four years and pop up claiming to be the true conservative, it simply won’t work.

For Conservative voters as well, they need to be involved NOW. Don’t wait four years and then complain where are the conservative candidates? By the time the primaries come around, it’s too late — the major candidates are already chosen. Some voters vote for minor or third party candidates to “send a message” to the party they need to shift, but anyone watching politics for the last few decades understands the futility of that strategy — it hasn’t worked in the past, didn’t work this year, and will fail in the future.

Paul’s (or any other minor/third-party) token movement will never shift the party — if you’ve watched politics for a few decades, you’ve seen this before and it always amounts to zip; this time is no different. The revolution isn’t over, there never was one. Sorry guys — you’ve underestimated the inertia in politics, and the huge motivation for the parties NOT to change.

It’s time for Conservatives to begin working for the elections in 2012 and beyond. Change doesn’t come during primaries, by then it’s too late. For Conservatives, please do not disappear, but continue to work inside the party to effect change, and realize we’re Conservatives, NOT Republicans. When Republicans are conservative, we’ll support them, but when they’re wrong, we will point out their wrongness and work for constructive change.

If you’re a Conservative looking for somewhere to go, try Newt Gingrich’s group. He’s working for real change (on both sides of the aisle with a platform the vast majority of Americans can support), and understands the Republican party will have to be lead to Conservatism, they won’t be leading. Visit http://americansolutions.com and look for “The Platform of the American People”.

And that’s it for Republicans and our plea for Conservatives to remain involved — if you don’t stay involved, don’t expect 2012 to be any different.

The Democrats are still going strong. It’s 50-50 Obama/Clinton and at this point it’s almost guaranteed the race lasts until the convention. For either to win now, they’d have to get about 3/4 of the remaining delegates, and with even support so far, unless a quantum shift occurs, this battle will be decided at the convention.

More than likely, it will be Democratic Superdelegates who determine who the Democratic nominee is. It’s likely neither will have a majority by convention time, and with hundreds of Superdelegates available, it’s those people (not the voters) who will ultimately choose the Democratic nominee. (For a primer on Superdelegates, see our article Why change is hard).

How the voters react to their choice being reversed (if it is) will be interesting.


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